Presidential Tracking Polls President Obama ended this week about where he was at this time last week in theGallup tracking poll.  His job approval rating stayed steady at 50%; his disapproval ticked up a point to 43%. Rasmussen showed a slight deterioration for the President over the past week.  His strongly approve/strongly disapprove numbers were steady at 31%/41%.  But over the course of the week, his approval sank slightly from 49% approve/51% disapprove to 46% approve/53% disapprove. The President also got some unwelcome news today from the CBS News poll.  The poll of adults – which should skew Democratic compared to the actual electorate – finds that only 44% approve of the job the President is doing.  41% disapprove.  This matches the lowest approval rating found for the President outside of the Rasmussen poll. As we've seen before, the President's numbers below the topline are significantly worse than his actual polling numbers.  34% approve of the President's job on health care – down a point from his previous February low, while 42% approve of his handling of the economy (which is a minor improvement from January). Senate Ohio Senate:  In yesterday's polling of the Ohio gubernatorial race, Rasmussen found the same movement Quinnipiac showed, with Ted Strickland closing the gap with John Kasich.  Today he found that the Senate race still leans toward Rob Portman regardless of whom the Democrats nominate this spring.  He leads Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher by five points and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner by seven.  This race is still a tossup, but you can probably put a finger on the scale for Portman. Arizona Senate:  The DailyKos teamed up with Research 2000 to poll the Arizona Senate race.  Mind you, consistent with their other polling, it seems to use the 2008 electorate as its basic turnout model; their poll was 31%D/40%R/29%I, while in 2008 the Arizona electorate was 32%D/39%R/30%I.  In 2004, which seems like a more accurate turnout model for 2010, we saw a more heavily Republican electorate:  30%D/44%R/26%I. In any event, R2K first polled the JD Hayworth/John McCain matchup, and found McCain winning handily, 52%-37%.  While it is still early (the primary isn't until late August), and I suspect that Hayworth isn't going to have any problems raising money, you would still have to classify this as "advantage McCain." R2K then polled two high profile Democrats who haven't declared:  Former Governor (and 1988 Democratic Presidential Primary candidate) Bruce Babbitt, and 8^th District Representative Gabrielle Giffords.  The 71-year-old Babbitt trailed the 73-year-old McCain by six points, while Giffords trailed McCain by nineteen points.  Two fairly unknown actual candidates, Rodney Glassman and Nan Stockholm Walden, trailed the Senator by twenty and thirty points, respectively. If Hayworth were the nominee, the Republicans would probably have little to worry about this cycle, as he leads all the candidates as well.  His margins are smaller than McCain's, but that is due to candidates falling into the “undecided” category rather than flipping. Governor Wyoming Governor:  Rasmussen also polled the Wyoming Governor's race.  This race actually looked like it could be interesting for a while, as the Supreme Court of Wyoming invalidated the state's legislative term limits.  Governor Dave Freudenthal deliberated challenging the limits for the governor as well by running for a third term, but ultimately decided not to do so. The race could still be interesting.  Although state Senator and Minority Leader Mike Massie trails all of his GOP opponents, none of them are at 50%.  Wyoming gubernatorial politics are surprisingly nonpartisan, and the relevant split at the state level tends to be more between ranchers and railroaders than Republicans and Democrats.  The GOP has actually only won the office twice since 1974, and Freudenthal was elected in the very good Republican year of 2002.  Nevertheless, while we can't rule out a Democratic win, it seems very unlikely. House Nothing today. Miscellany CNN polled 935 registered voters to get their views on what party is best positioned to handle the nation's problems.  At first glance, the news is good for the GOP, since most of the movement is in their direction.  But what we may be seeing is just evidence of how balkanized our politics are becoming.  Areas where the country was split between the parties before, it is still split.  Where the GOP had previously led (terrorism), the country moved toward parity, and the Democrats.  While the GOP's competitiveness with Democrats on health care is truly historic, the Democrats' parity with the GOP on foreign affairs and taxes is likewise historically unusual. Numbers from CNN's August polling are in parens; you can see historical polling numbers at the link. Economy:  GOP 48%, Dems 45% (39%/52%) Foreign Affairs:  GOP 44%, Dems 48% (44%/47%) Afghanistan:  GOP 44%, Dems 46% (40%/48%) Terrorism:  GOP 50%, Dems 40% (52%/39%) Health Care:  GOP 46%, Dems 48% (42%/51%) Taxes:  GOP 48%, Dems 45% (47%/47%) Deficit:  GOP 46%, Dems 44% (46%/46%) Medicare:  GOP 46%, Dems 47% (39%/52%) Unemployment:  GOP 46%, Dems 46% Education: GOP 40%, Dems 50% Environment:  GOP 34%, Dems 57%

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